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| #106849 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 28.Aug.2006) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...CENTER OF ERNESTO STILL OVER CUBA... AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS... AND CAMAGUEY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR INLAND OVER CUBA ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...NORTH OF CAMAGUEY. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 325 MILES...520 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 320 MILES ...515 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HAITI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.7 N...77.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
