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| #106856 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 PM 28.Aug.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA THROUGH 00Z SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS STILL INLAND. HIGHEST WINDS FROM THE FLIGHT JUST OFFSHORE WERE 46 KT ABOUT 6 HOURS AGO...AND MORE RECENTLY 37 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...ERNESTO WILL BE HELD AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS INLAND...AND SINCE THAT TIME...CUBAN RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CAMAGUAY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND. THE RADAR DATA SHOW A GRADUAL DETERIORATION IN THE ORGANIZATION OF ERNESTO...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY VERY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR ANDROS APPEARS TO BE ADVECTING DRY AIR INTO THE CYCLONE...WHICH MAY ACCOUNT FOR THE ANEMIC CONVECTION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LEAVING ERNESTO UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR. THIS WOULD FAVOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AFTER THE CENTER CLEARS THE COASTS...BUT THE UPPER WINDS WOULD NOT SEEM TO FAVOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE...AND REPRESENTS A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA...THE LIKLIHOOD OF THIS IS DIMINISHING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10. ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THIS REQUIRES A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY MOVE THE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. DROPSONDE AND RAOB DATA FROM 00Z INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL AT 80-81W...STILL AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE'S LONGITUDE. THIS COULD MEAN THAT SOME SLIGHT WESTWARD TRACK ADJUSTMENTS ARE IN THE OFFING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 21.7N 77.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 23.0N 79.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 24.6N 80.3W 55 KT 36HR VT 30/1200Z 26.4N 80.9W 50 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 31/0000Z 28.5N 81.0W 45 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 01/0000Z 33.0N 80.0W 60 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 02/0000Z 36.5N 78.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 03/0000Z 39.0N 77.5W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
