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| #1068837 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 06.Nov.2021) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 07 2021 Wanda has continued to weaken tonight. Only small bursts of convection have occurred during the past several hours, and Wanda`s low-level center is starting to move away from the ongoing convection in its southeastern quadrant. A 2220 UTC ASCAT-A pass revealed a small area of 30-kt winds in this portion of the cyclone, but the infrared cloud top temperatures have cooled in this area since that data was collected. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory, which lies on the higher end of the most recent satellite estimates. Wanda is beginning to move faster toward the northeast, and its initial motion is estimated to be 050/12 kt. The cyclone will continue to accelerate northeastward over the next day or so within the strengthening, deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with a deepening mid-latitude low pressure system over the northern Atlantic. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the latest NHC track forecast is virtually unchanged from the previous advisory. Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for any further tropical development of Wanda. As the cyclone races northeastward, it will encounter decreasing SSTs and increasing deep-layer southerly shear within a dry mid-level environment. Thus, Wanda`s convective structure is unlikely to improve over the next 24 h. The intensity guidance suggests the peak winds could increase slightly later today, but this is most likely a product of the system`s increasing forward speed and its merger with an approaching front. Thus, the official NHC intensity forecast has been lowered from the previous one. Wanda is still forecast to merge with the front and become extratropical tonight, then dissipate over the northeastern Atlantic on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 37.8N 36.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 39.8N 34.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 44.4N 28.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 08/1200Z 48.9N 21.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
