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| #106903 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 AM 29.Aug.2006) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006 AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS... AND CAMAGUEY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED FOR THE EASTERNMOST PROVINCES OF CUBA LATER THIS MORNING. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 78.9W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 78.9W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 78.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.8N 79.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.4N 80.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 27.3N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 29.7N 80.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.7N 79.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 25SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 38.0N 79.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 42.0N 80.0W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 78.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
