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| #106912 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 29.Aug.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING ERNESTO THIS MORNING AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATE THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FINALLY MOVED OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND IS BACK OVER WATER. THE CENTER IS JUST INSIDE THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF YET ANOTHER EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE BURST NOTED IN RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI AND CAMAGUEY CUBA...AND ALSO IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A 50-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. SPECIAL THANKS TO THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA FOR PERMITTING THE RECON AIRCRAFT FLY RIGHT UP TO THEIR COASTLINE TO GATHER THIS CRITICAL WEATHER DATA. BASED ON THE RECON FIX INFORMATION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/12...WHICH IS RIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE STABILIZED NOW COURTESY OF THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AICRAFT DATA GETTING INTO THE MODELS. THEY ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON ERNESTO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA IN 18-24 HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO SLOWLY ERODE AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. THE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ERNESTO SHOULD RE-EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OFF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA AREA IN 60-72 HOURS. AFTER THE SECOND U.S. LANDFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO BE CAUGHT UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA AND POSSIBLY BECOME A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE VARIOUS NHC CONSENSUS MODEL FORECASTS. NOW THAT ERNESTO HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER...AT LEAST SOME STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. A SMALL BUT POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED ABOUT 120 NMI NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO IS ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS ALSO CREATING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND PUNCHING DRY AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER... THE HINDERING EFFECTS OF THAT SYSTEM ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS ERNESTO IS PASSING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM. IN 18 HOURS OR SO...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR ZERO...SO THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 22.6N 78.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 23.8N 79.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 30/0600Z 25.4N 80.7W 60 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 30/1800Z 27.3N 81.0W 50 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 31/0600Z 29.7N 80.8W 55 KT 72HR VT 01/0600Z 34.7N 79.4W 40 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 02/0600Z 38.0N 79.0W 35 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 03/0600Z 42.0N 80.0W 25 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
