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| #106949 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:55 AM 29.Aug.2006) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...ERNESTO MOVING OVER WATER JUST TO THE NORTH OF CUBA...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR CUBA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 215 MILES ...350 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... SQUALLY RAINBANDS WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...22.8 N...79.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
