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| #106970 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 29.Aug.2006) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...SOME STRENGTHENING STILL EXPECTED... AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...275 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 180 MILES...285 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAINS AND SQUALLS WILL BE ARRIVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...23.3 N...79.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
