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| #106971 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 29.Aug.2006) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1500 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006 AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 79.5W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 79.5W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 79.2W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.4N 80.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.3N 81.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 28.5N 81.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 30.9N 80.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 36.0N 79.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 39.5N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 43.0N 80.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 79.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
