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| #106974 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 29.Aug.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE OF ERNESTO IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED YET. SFMR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL NEAR 40 KT...AND A NEW FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOT FALLING...IMPLYING THAT INTENSIFICATION HAS NOT OCCURRED THUS FAR. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION...AND SUGGEST INCREASING ORGANIZATION. THERE IS STILL A REMOTE POSSIBILITY FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...HOWEVER NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT. AFTER ERNESTO MOVES FROM FLORIDA BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 2 DAYS THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. SATELLITE-BASED CENTER FIXES ARE SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT FIXES...AND THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY THUS FAR FROM LAND-BASED RADARS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 315/11. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND THEN ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN THE 12-24 HOURS TIME FRAME...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 23.3N 79.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 24.4N 80.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 26.3N 81.2W 55 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 31/0000Z 28.5N 81.1W 45 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 31/1200Z 30.9N 80.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 36.0N 79.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 02/1200Z 39.5N 79.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 03/1200Z 43.0N 80.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
