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| #107182 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 29.Aug.2006) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...ERNESTO LINGERING JUST OFF OF PLANTATION KEY... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED NORTH OF BONITA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FLORIDA IS ALSO DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA...INCLUDING ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES... 25 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. THIS POSITION IS JUST A FEW MILES SOUTHEAST OF ISLAMORADA. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WEDNESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WELL IN ADVANCE OF ERNESTO THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...24.9 N...80.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
