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| #107188 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 PM 29.Aug.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT ERNESTO IS HOLDING STEADY WITH A PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 37 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT. SINCE THE CENTER WILL BE OVER LAND SHORTLY...THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO MORE CHANCE FOR STRENGTHENING. SLOW DECAY IS THEN EXPECTED OVER FLORIDA...AND HOW MUCH STRENGTHENING OCCURS AFTER ERNESTO EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF A CYCLONE IS LEFT. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ERNESTO MAY BE GETTING SOME BAROCLINIC SUPPORT AT THAT TIME...AND THE GFDL STILL WANTS TO MAKE ERNESTO A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THIS MODEL...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOR A CAROLINA'S LANDFALL IS ONLY REDUCED SLIGHTLY AT THIS TIME. AN AIR FORCE FIX AND CENTER DROPSONDE INDICATE ERNESTO HAS NOT QUITE MADE LANDFALL. IN FACT...THE CENTER HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE LONGER TERM MOTION IS 330/8. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND MODEL CONSENSUS. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING PATTERN NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 24.9N 80.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 26.6N 81.1W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 31/0000Z 28.6N 80.8W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 31/1200Z 31.2N 80.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 33.8N 79.2W 55 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 02/0000Z 37.5N 78.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 03/0000Z 40.0N 78.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
