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| #107212 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:58 AM 30.Aug.2006) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO MAKES SECOND FLORIDA LANDFALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA...INCLUDING ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES... 25 KM...EAST OF FLAMINGO FLORIDA AND ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. HOWEVER... RAINBANDS CONTAINING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE TODAY IN THE WARNING AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WELL IN ADVANCE OF ERNESTO THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THIS COULD BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...25.2 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
