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| #107238 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 30.Aug.2006) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING THE FLORIDA KEYS...FLORIDA BAY...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA... AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER...INCLUDING ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED BY DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR IN NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA AND ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. HOWEVER... RAINBANDS CONTAINING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE TODAY IN THE WARNING AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. RECENTLY A WIND GUST TO 58 MPH WAS REPORTED AT THE FOWEY ROCKS C-MAN STATION...AND WINDS GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WELL IN ADVANCE OF ERNESTO THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THIS COULD BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...25.6 N...80.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
