Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #107260 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:17 AM 30.Aug.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 RECONNAISSANCE DATA EARLIER THIS EVENING FOUND 1003 MB PRESSURE JUST BEFORE ERNESTO MADE ITS SECOND FLORIDA LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA NEAR THE MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY LINE. RECON ALSO FOUND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT JUST OFFSHORE THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. SINCE THEN...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FORM THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS AT DOWN TO AT LEAST 1001 MB. ALSO...THE NWS MIAMI DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED VELOCITIES OF 45-50 KT FROM 200 TO 3000 FEET ALONG THE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND EXTENDING INLAND...AS WELL AS OVER THE UPPER KEYS. A FEW SPOTS OF 55 KT WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED...AND THE FOWEY ROCKS C-MAN STATION HAS REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 50 KT ALONG WITH A 10-METER WIND EQUIVALENT OF 37-40 KT. BASE DON THIS DATA...THE INTENSITY OF ERNESTO WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/07. ERNESTO APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY TURNING MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH IS RIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS FEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACKS. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT ON THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND FLORIDA TO GRADUALLY ERODE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ...AND EXIT THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN CAPE CANAVERAL AND DAYTONA BEACH. ANOTHER LANDFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER IN 36-48 HOURS...WITH A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED AFTER THAT. IN 72-96 HOURS...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A POTENT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH SHOULD ACT TO PULL ERNESTO NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN IS MORE LEFT OF TRACK AND SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER THAT. ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE THE CENTER REMAIN OVER LAND...BUT IT COULD ALSO HOLD ONTO TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STATUS DUE TO RAINBANDS ALONG THE COAST CONTAINING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. AFTER ERNESTO EMERGES BACK OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN ABOUT 18 HOURS OR SO...IT WILL BE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD RIGHT OVER THE GULFSTREAM AND BENEATH A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME. FRICTIONAL EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LIKELY TIGHTEN UP AND IMPROVE THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO TODAY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ERNESTO TO RE-STRENGTHEN ONCE IT IS BACK OVER WATER. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH JUST BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL AGAIN...AND FOR THAT REASON THE FOR MAINTAINING THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS. THE GFDL MODEL IS FORECASTING ERNESTO TO BE AT 79 KT JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL AGAIN...WHICH IS PROBABLY TOO HIGH BUT STILL INDICATIVE THAT IT COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS. AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THAT IS THE REASON FOR KEEPING ERNESTO AS A TROPICAL STORM AT 72 HOURS AND FOR EXPANDING THE WIND FIELD FARTHER TO THE EAST AT THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 25.6N 80.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 27.2N 81.0W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 31/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 31/1800Z 32.2N 79.7W 50 KT 48HR VT 01/0600Z 34.7N 78.9W 40 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 02/0600Z 38.5N 78.7W 35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 03/0600Z 41.5N 80.0W 25 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
