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| #107425 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 30.Aug.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA PRODUCING INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION AND A FEW RAINBANDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 30 KNOTS WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL ORGANIZED AND THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...ERNESTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 010 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS AND SOON IT WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ON THIS TRACK..THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND NEARING THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. TRACK MODELS ARE CLUSTERED AND BRING ERNESTO TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS. BECAUSE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT. ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 48 HOURS...ERNESTO SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 27.6N 80.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 31/0600Z 29.5N 80.4W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 31/1800Z 32.4N 79.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 01/0600Z 35.0N 79.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 01/1800Z 37.5N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 02/1800Z 43.5N 80.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
