Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #107565 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 30.Aug.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE BROAD CENTER OF ERNESTO IS MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 1000 MB. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41009 AND THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D SHOW THAT WINDS ARE NEAR TROPICAL STORM-FORCE OVER THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THE DATA DOES NOT YET JUSTIFY AN UPGRADE. HOWEVER...ERNESTO WILL LIKELY REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL REACH THE CYCLONE AROUND 06Z. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/12. ERNESTO IS NOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...THEN TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD THEREAFTER AROUND A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE ONLY DIVERGENCE COMING AFTER ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND STARTS TO DISINTEGRATE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ERNESTO HAS A DECENT...BUT BROAD...CONVECTIVE BANDING PATTERN AND WIND CIRCULATION. THIS...COMBINED WITH FORECAST INCREASING SHEAR DUE TO THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...SUGGEST THAT RE-INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE GRADUAL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SUCH RE-INTENSIFICATION IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THAT FORECAST BY THE OTHER GUIDANCE. 12 FT SEA RADII HAVE BEEN INCLUDED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 41009. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0300Z 28.7N 80.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 31/1200Z 30.8N 79.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 33.5N 79.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 01/1200Z 35.9N 78.3W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 02/0000Z 37.9N 78.2W 25 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/0000Z 43.0N 79.5W 25 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
