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| #107697 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 31.Aug.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN BANDS AND NEAR THE CENTER BUT LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE MOST RECENT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA REPORTED THAT THE PRESSURE WAS GRADUALLY FALLING AND THE FLIGHT LEVEL PEAK WINDS INCREASED TO 61 KNOTS. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50 KNOTS. ERNESTO HAS ABOUT 10 ADDITIONAL HOURS OVER WARM WATERS BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST AND SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR IN THAT PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS ERNESTO TO 60 KNOTS AT LANDFALL IN AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE. SINCE NEITHER I NOR THE MODELS ARE GOOD ENOUGH TO PRECISELY KNOW IF ERNESTO WILL HAVE AN INTENSITY OF 64 KNOTS AT LANDFALL...WHICH IS THE BORDER BETWEEN HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AND 4 KNOTS ABOVE THE FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST. THE INTENSITY OF ERNESTO IS BEING VERY CLOSELY MONITORED WITH A NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT WHICH IS MEASURING SURFACE WINDS WITH THE SFMR INSTRUMENT. ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 36 HOURS...ERNESTO SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS REMNANT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS AND IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE STEERING PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/1500Z 31.3N 79.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 33.4N 78.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 36.0N 78.0W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 02/0000Z 38.0N 78.0W 25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 02/1200Z 40.1N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
