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| #10774 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 28.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS NOW CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION WHICH HAS INCREASED A LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY. RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT LISA MAY BE LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY POSITION. IN FACT..THERE IS A HINT OF AN EYE. IF THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH ADDITIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OR MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL POSITION WILL BE ADJUSTED AND THE INTENSITY WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME WE WOULD RATHER KEEP CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS LOCATION. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH PREVAILED OVER LISA...WILL RELAX AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LISA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH. LISA SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. DURING THIS PERIOD...LISA COULD MAKE A LITTLE JOG TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THERAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD FINALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AND FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS VERY CLOSELY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 25.0N 47.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 26.6N 47.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 47.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 31.0N 47.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 33.0N 47.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 36.0N 47.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 02/1200Z 39.0N 44.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 03/1200Z 41.0N 38.0W 50 KT |
