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| #107789 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 31.Aug.2006) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST TONIGHT...WEATHER SHOULD DETERIORATE SOON... AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 75 MILES...125 KM...EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL CROSS THE COAST TONIGHT. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...ERNESTO COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...32.6 N...78.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
