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| #107791 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 31.Aug.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 EXTENSIVE RECONNAISSANCE WITH BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO ARE 60 KNOTS. THE CENTRAL MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 991 MB. SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION SHOW A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS AND ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT WITH 60 KNOTS. ONE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 36 HOURS...ERNESTO SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE REMNANT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 32.6N 78.7W 60 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 34.7N 78.0W 50 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 01/1800Z 37.0N 77.5W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 02/0600Z 38.5N 77.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 02/1800Z 41.0N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
