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| #107888 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 31.Aug.2006) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...CENTER OF ERNESTO NEAR LANDFALL ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR CAPE FEAR... AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF ERNESTO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST...OR NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST JUST WEST OF CAPE FEAR. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 25 MILES... 45 KM...SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE STORM MOVES INLAND OVER NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SIX-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 55 MPH WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...33.9 N...78.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
