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| #107901 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 31.Aug.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND DATA FROM THE WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA WSR-88D INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS COME UP JUST SHORT IN ITS BID TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE RADAR SHOWED WINDS NEAR 75 KT ABOUT 3000 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT THOSE WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED. THE HURRICANE HUNTER JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 988 MB ABOUT 10 N MI FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH 63 KT WINDS 70 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOME CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS OVER WATER...AND UNTIL THIS IS INLAND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL...ERNESTO SHOULD WEAKEN OVER LAND...THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HR. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN 48-72 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/16. ERNESTO SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HR AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ALL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION. THE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 33.9N 78.2W 60 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 35.7N 77.3W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 02/0000Z 37.6N 77.2W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 02/1200Z 39.4N 77.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/0000Z 41.7N 78.4W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
