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| #107955 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 01.Sep.2006) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...ERNESTO WEAKENING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BUT STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS... AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KINSTON NORTH CAROLINA...AND ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS ERNESTO MOVES FARTHER INLAND TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS MORNING. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...35.1 N...77.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
