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| #107957 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 AM 01.Sep.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006 WSR-88D DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS MOVING STEADILY INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 010/13. THE REFLECTIVITIES SHOW THAT MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS NORTH OF THE CENTER AND ALREADY EXTENDS INTO VIRGINIA...BUT RECENT VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT 50 KT WINDS COULD STILL BE OCCURRING EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE OCEAN...AND THAT IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES THE DECAY SHIPS GUIDANCE IN ANTICIPATING ERNESTO TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR LESS THAN 12 MORE HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THIS TIME TOMORROW AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BOTH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK SHOWN IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 35.1N 77.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 36.7N 77.4W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 02/0600Z 38.6N 77.5W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 02/1800Z 40.5N 78.1W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/0600Z 42.7N 79.2W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
