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| #10820 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 28.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. I HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS AN INDICATION OF AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE EARLIER TODAY ON BOTH MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES...THAT FEATURE HAS BEEN TRANSIENT AND THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB. THE STRONG SHEAR WHICH PREVAILED OVER LISA...IS FORECAST TO RELAX AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS. LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH. LISA SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. DURING THIS PERIOD...LISA COULD MAKE A LITTLE JOG TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD FINALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND GRADUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AND FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS VERY CLOSELY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 26.4N 46.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 28.0N 46.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 30.0N 46.8W 50 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 32.0N 47.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 30/1800Z 34.0N 48.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 38.0N 47.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 02/1800Z 42.0N 40.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 03/1800Z 43.0N 34.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
