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| #108497 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 03.Sep.2006) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO GARNER DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF T2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. CONSEQUENTLY...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. BUOY 41026 REPORTED 32 KT WINDS LATE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE SINCE DECREASED...AND THIS IS THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS DIFFICULT TO SEE...AND THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND A COMMON CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS THEREFORE UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED TO BE 305/12. A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD ALLOW THE PRESENT MOTION TO CONTINUE...WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEND THE TRACK BACK TO THE LEFT TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH WITH GREAT DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE FASTER MOTION OF THE GFDL AND BAM MODELS...WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF BEING CONSIDERABLY SLOWER. WITH CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA AND THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE SWIRLS...IT IS NOT CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER WILL CONSOLIDATE. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THE CENTER COULD CONSOLIDATE TO THE NORTH OF THE CURRENT TRACK AND BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH. THERE IS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...AND THIS COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE NUMBERS FROM THESE TWO MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 14.6N 40.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 15.6N 41.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 16.8N 43.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 17.7N 45.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 46.7W 50 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 54.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 59.0W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
