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| #10859 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 29.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2004 A REPORT AT 6Z OF 34 KT FROM SHIP FQFL...ABOUT 175 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF LISA...GIVES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z...AND SUGGESTS THAT LISA HAD WINDS OF ABOUT 60 KT AT THAT TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT ON THIS BASIS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM REMAINS SHEARED WITH A SHARPLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW INCREASING NORTH...RATHER THAN NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS IS BEGINNING TO PUSH OUTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST CUTOFF OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LISA...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO REDUCE THE SHEAR AND ALLOW LISA TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BEFORE LISA IS RELEASED FROM THE LOW AND ENCOUNTERS SOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE JEANNE. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AS LISA WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS IT COULD MERGE WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF JEANNE...BUT I WILL CARRY POSITIONS OUT TO 120 HOURS IN CASE THE MERGER DOES NOT OCCUR. NONE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE EAST OF NORTH MOTION OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND SO MY TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS PERHAPS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFDL HAS A TRACK A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF MINE AND KEEPS LISA STRONGER LONGER. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 28.0N 46.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 29.5N 46.2W 60 KT 24HR VT 30/0600Z 31.3N 47.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 30/1800Z 33.0N 48.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 01/0600Z 35.0N 48.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 02/0600Z 38.0N 46.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 03/0600Z 42.0N 40.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 04/0600Z 43.5N 30.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
