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| #108678 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 PM 04.Sep.2006) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM EDT MON SEP 04 2006 SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. IN FACT... IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND HAS A SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED APPEARANCE. THE CENTER... AS BEST WE CAN TELL... IS BETWEEN TWO BANDING FEATURES THAT ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LINEAR. SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY... BUT THERE IS NO GOOD REASON TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM AS DISORGANIZED AS IT LOOKS NOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 30 KT. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SEEMS TO BE INHIBITING STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DIMINISH... ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS... AFTER WHICH MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION COULD BEGIN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED IN THE NEAR-TERM TO REFLECT THE DISORGANIZED INITIAL STATE... BUT IS KEPT ALMOST THE SAME IN THE LATER TERM OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GLOBAL MODELS... WHICH ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY HAVE THE SYSTEM IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FROM DAYS 3-5. THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE... 305/10. COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION WITH A STRONG RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN A COUPLE DAYS...AFTER A LARGE TROUGH DEPARTS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. HOWEVER...THE BIG DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS IS THE SYSTEM'S SPEED. NOGAPS SHOOTS THE DEPRESSION WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AN UNBELIEVABLY FAST RATE. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE UKMET... AFTER BEING ONE OF THE SLOWEST MODELS... HAS MADE A LARGE WESTWARD SHIFT AND IS NOW SIMILAR TO THE GFS POSITION. WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE FORECAST... WE'VE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF BEING A LITTLE FASTER THAN A MODEL CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE NOGAPS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 16.9N 43.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 17.6N 45.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 18.3N 46.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 19.0N 48.1W 40 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 19.5N 50.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 07/1800Z 20.5N 54.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 08/1800Z 21.5N 58.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 09/1800Z 23.0N 62.0W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN |
