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| #108756 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 04.Sep.2006) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 04 2006 THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY IN TRYING TO DETERMINE A CENTER POSITION THIS EVENING. BUOY 41041 LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION INDICATED A WEAK CIRCULATION HAD PASSED OVER OR NEAR THAT BUOY AROUND 00Z. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING THE PAST DAY OR SO HAS BECOME LESS OBVIOUS IN QUIKSCAT AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY POSITION IS A BLEND OF CONVENTIONAL FIX POSITIONS AND A 04/2130Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THIS POSITION IS NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE NOTED IN NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA...AND LEANS CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST THAT HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. UNTIL THE CENTER CONSOLIDATES AND BECOMES BETTER DEFINED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...THERE MAY BE SOME REFORMATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT MIGRATES TOWARD ANY CONVECTIVE BURSTS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE SHOULD BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. BY DAY 5...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 65W-75W LONGITUDE. HOWEVER...THE WEAK LOW-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO CREATE THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PHASE UP WITH A MUCH STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWING RAPIDLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT OFTENTIMES STRONGER MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BYPASS AND NOT LINK UP WITH WEAKER TROUGHS SITUATED OVER LOWER LATITUDES. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK INDICATES ONLY A SLIGHT POLEWARD BEND BY DAY 5...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN FIGHTING OFF SOME DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN PUNCHING INTO THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...SO ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...AFTER 72HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT... AND BY 96-120 HOURS BE NEAR ZERO. THAT IS WHEN MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO 87 KT BY 120 HOURS ...WHEREAS THE GFDL STILL MAKES THE SYSTEM A MAJOR HURRICANE AT THAT TIME. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AS INDICATED BY THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND BELOW THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 17.3N 44.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 17.9N 45.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 18.6N 47.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 19.2N 49.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 19.8N 51.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 08/0000Z 21.0N 56.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 09/0000Z 22.0N 60.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 10/0000Z 24.0N 65.0W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
