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| #10881 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 29.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2004 SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT LISA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE MORNING AS INDICATED BY A DISTINCT CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE CLOUD BAND...AND BETTER DEFINED CIRRUS OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE APPEARANCE OF A DEVELOPING EYE TYPE FEATURE FURTHER SUGGESTS THAT LISA IS BECOMING STRONGER. HOWEVER...DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 12Z FROM TAFB WHERE 3.5 AND 3.0 FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 60 KT. OBSERVATIONS OF 45 KNOTS FROM SHIP ZCGH LOCATED ABOUT 100 NM SW OF THE CENTER AND 30 KNOTS FROM SHIP FQFL ABOUT 220 NM NE OF THE CENTER OF LISA WERE USED TO ADJUST THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LISA WILL HELP REDUCE SHEAR IN 12 HOURS ALLOWING FOR LISA TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO STEER LISA TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR A DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...LISA WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE THROUGH 72 HOURS BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL OVER COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 29.7N 45.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 31.1N 46.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 33.0N 47.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 35.0N 48.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 01/1200Z 36.5N 48.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 02/1200Z 40.5N 44.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 03/1200Z 44.0N 37.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 04/1200Z 45.0N 26.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
