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| #109214 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 07.Sep.2006) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM EDT THU SEP 07 2006 FRUSTRATION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT TRYING TO LOCATE THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF FLORENCE. A 0345 UTC TRMM OVERPASS AND A 0507 UTC AMSU OVERPASS PROVIDED SOME INDICATIONS OF AN OVERALL SYSTEM CENTER...BUT ALSO SHOWED AT LEAST ONE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT LOCATION. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE APPEARANCE OF FLORENCE VERY SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO...WITH A SLIGHT CURVED BANDING FEATURE AND WARMER CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS A RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/9. DESPITE THE QUANDARY IN FINDING THE INITIAL POSITION...THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT AND IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. CONSEQUENTLY THE REASONING IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...THEN SLOW A BIT AS THE CYCLONE TURNS MORE TO THE NORTH AS IT IS STEERED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS CLOSELY THROUGH 5 DAYS. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND ENCOUNTER LESS SHEAR IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CYCLONE...MOVES WESTWARD AND WEAKENS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ALLOW FLORENCE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS FLORENCE TO JUST UNDER MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...HOWEVER IT STILL COULD REACH CATEGORY THREE IN BETWEEN THE FORECAST PERIODS. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE GUIDANCE FROM BOTH SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. ONCE AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY PREDICTION PARTICULARLY IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME. A SHIP REPORT AT 0600 UTC...FROM MSJZ8...REPORTED A 34 KT SUSTAINED WIND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THIS REPORT JUSTIFIED EXPANDING THE WIND RADII OUT TO 250 N MI OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 20.1N 53.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 21.1N 54.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 22.6N 57.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 24.0N 60.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 09/0600Z 25.0N 63.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 10/0600Z 27.5N 66.0W 90 KT 96HR VT 11/0600Z 30.5N 67.0W 95 KT 120HR VT 12/0600Z 35.0N 66.0W 95 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN |
