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| #1093843 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:35 PM 02.Jun.2022) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 700 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022 ...HEAVY RAINFALL TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, THE FLORIDA KEYS, AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 87.5W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of The Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the northwestern Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key * East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line * Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm warnings may be required later tonight for portions of the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 87.5 West. The system is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Friday, and a faster motion toward the northeast is expected Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the system should move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through Friday night, and then move across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical depression later tonight or on Friday and a tropical storm late Friday or Friday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce heavy rains over the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Friday. Heavy rains will begin to affect South Florida and the Keys Friday and continue through Saturday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are currently expected: Eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum of 6 inches. Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum of 14 inches. This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. South Florida including the Keys: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals of 12 inches. This rain may produce considerable flash and urban flooding especially across the urban corridors. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Cuba on Friday, and in the watch area in Florida and the northwestern Bahamas by Friday night or Saturday morning. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, FL...1-2 ft Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi |
