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| #1093888 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:02 AM 03.Jun.2022) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 100 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022 ...HEAVY RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA, THE FLORIDA KEYS, AND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 86.9W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 450 MI...730 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 040 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay * West coast of Florida south of Englewood to Card Sound Bridge A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood * East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Card Sound Bridge * Lake Okeechobee * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 86.9 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected later today and on Saturday. On the forecast track, the system should move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through Saturday morning, across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday, and then over the southwestern Atlantic north of the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical depression today and a tropical storm by this evening or tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce heavy rains over the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba through today. Heavy rains will begin to affect South Florida and the Keys beginning today and continuing through Saturday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are currently expected: Eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maxima of 6 inches. Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maxima of 14 inches. This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. South Florida including the Keys: 4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12 inches. This rain may produce considerable flash and urban flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in Florida tonight and early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba today and are possible in the watch area in Florida and the northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, FL...1-2 ft Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible over South Florida beginning this evening and continuing through Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
