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| #1094033 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 03.Jun.2022) TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 1100 PM EDT Fri Jun 03 2022 A combination of satellite and radar images, as well as surface and reconnaissance data indicate that the disturbance is still quite ill-defined with multiple centers evident. Overall, the system appears a little less organized than earlier today and resembles an elongated trough with disorganized convection. Therefore, the disturbance still lacks the criteria needed for a tropical cyclone, so there remains no change in the system`s status. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on Doppler radar data. Nearly all of the deep convection is located on the system`s east side with the heaviest rain currently occurring over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and South Florida. Since there is no real center of circulation, the initial motion is uncertain, but the overall envelope is moving northeastward at about 10 kt. The disturbance is expected to continue northeastward and move across south and central Florida early Saturday and then move north of the northwestern Bahamas late Saturday and early Sunday. After that time, a general east-northeast to northeast motion over the western Atlantic is forecast, with the system moving closest to Bermuda late Monday. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one, trending toward the latest guidance. Strong southwesterly shear and dry mid-level air should prevent the disturbance from organizing much before it moves across Florida. However, the models do show the system gaining some organization and strength while it moves over the western Atlantic late this weekend and early next week, and the system could benefit from some baroclinic enhancements. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the low side of the guidance through the period. The system is forecast to become extratropical in 72-96 hours, but some models suggest that this could occur a little sooner. Data from the Cuban meteorological service indicate a couple of locations have already received more than 10 inches of rain during this event. The main impact will continue to be widespread heavy rain that will affect portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas during the next day or so. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected to continue tonight across portions of western Cuba, where life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible. 2. Heavy rainfall will also affect the northwestern Bahamas, the Keys, South Florida, and Central Florida tonight through Saturday. Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible across South Florida and in the Keys. Flash and urban flooding is also possible across the northwestern Bahamas. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in western Cuba for a few more hours, in Florida tonight and on Saturday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the watch area in western Cuba during the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 24.5N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 04/1200Z 25.8N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 05/0000Z 28.4N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 05/1200Z 30.7N 75.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 32.3N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 33.8N 68.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 34.3N 64.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 35.1N 58.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0000Z 37.2N 52.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
