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| #1094070 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 04.Jun.2022) TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 500 AM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022 The organization of the disturbance over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico has continued to deteriorate overnight. Scatterometer data indicated that the system has an elongated region 200 n mi long by 50 n mi wide of light (< 10 kt) winds and no well-defined center. In addition, about 30 kt of west-southwesterly shear and mid-level dry air has stripped all associated deep convection in a more-or-less linear band that extends 150-200 n mi east of the estimated center. In other words, the system has gone the wrong way in becoming a tropical cyclone. The estimated center is located near the northern end of the area of light winds, and maximum winds are held at 35 kt based on recent sustained winds of 29-31 kt measured at several marine sites near the Florida Keys. The disturbance is moving faster toward the northeast (045/16 kt), but this appears less of a continuous motion and more of a re-formation of the center since yesterday afternoon. This behavior is likely to continue through the day as the system makes its way toward and across Florida. After that, the global models suggest that the center may jump or re-form near the east-central coast of Florida this afternoon or this evening and then develop and maintain a more familiar tropical cyclone-like structure as it heads northeastward and east-northeastward over the western Atlantic through Monday. The model trackers do not appear to be handling the jumping of the low pressure or the re-formation of the center, and for this cycle the NHC forecast leans heavily on a blend of the global model fields. Although deep-layer shear is expected to increase further, a shortwave trough moving eastward along the northern Gulf coast appears as though it will interact with the disturbance in about 24 hours and allow the expected newly formed low east of Florida to develop a more well-defined circulation than what we`ve seen over the past day or two. This trough interaction could also allow the system to intensify slightly over the next few days. However, the global models now suggest that the system could become an extratropical low by day 3, which is now reflected in the official forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of South Florida and the Keys as well as the northwestern Bahamas today. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across South Florida. Flash and urban flooding is possible across the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Florida today, mainly in squalls, and in the northwestern Bahamas by this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 25.6N 83.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 04/1800Z 27.1N 80.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 05/0600Z 28.6N 78.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 05/1800Z 30.7N 74.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 32.8N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 34.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 34.7N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/0600Z 37.5N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0600Z 42.0N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg |
