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| #1094112 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 04.Jun.2022) TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 1100 AM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022 Radar data and surface observations indicate that the broad and poorly-defined center of the disturbance is spreading onshore in southwestern Florida, with the lowest pressure of 1002 mb in the Naples area. These data also suggest that a new vorticity center is forming along the east coast of Florida east and northeast of lake Okeechobee. The maximum winds remain near 35 kt, and these are occuring in strong convection over the water east of southeastern Florida, well to the east of the advisory position. While a cluster of convection is occurring near the center, the system is still not organized enough to be called a tropical storm. The initial motion remains 045/16, and some of this may be due to ongoing re-formation of the center. The track guidance is in good agreement that a general northeastward motion should continue through Sunday, followed by an east-northeastward to eastward motion Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the system will emerge or re-form over the Atlantic east of Florida later today or tonight, and then pass north of Bermuda on Monday on its way into the central Atlantic. The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous track. Water vapor and air mass imagery show a mid- to upper-level trough over the southeastern United States and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. While this trough is aiding strong westerly shear over the disturbance, the interaction between this trough and the disturbance is forecast to lead to a better-defined circulation during the next 12-24 h, which should allow the disturbance to become a tropical storm. By 72 h, this interaction is expected to lead to the system becoming an extratropical low over the central Atlantic. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance, and like the track forecast, has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of South Florida and the Keys as well as the northwestern Bahamas today. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across South Florida. Flash and urban flooding is possible across the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Florida today, mainly in squalls, and in the northwestern Bahamas by this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 26.5N 81.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 05/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 05/1200Z 29.7N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 06/0000Z 31.9N 71.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 33.7N 66.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 35.0N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 35.7N 56.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/1200Z 39.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1200Z 44.5N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven |
