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| #10949 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 30.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2004 SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING REVEALS THAT LISA IS MAINTAINING A VERY DISTINCT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AS LISA MOVES OVER A TONGUE OF COOL WATER LEFT BY THE UPWELLING CAUSED BY HURRICANE KARL. ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 12Z FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.5 SUGGESTING WINDS OF ONLY 35 KNOTS... QUIKSCAT DATA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SUPPORT WINDS OF AT LEAST 55 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION WILL DECREASE THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 55 KT. BECAUSE LISA IS OVER COOLER WATERS A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. LISA IS MOVING 340 DEGREES OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...LISA SHOULD SOON BEGIN MOVING NORTH AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION OF JEANNE IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE EXCEPT A LITTLE TO LEFT AT 36 HOURS. FORECASTER AGUIRRE/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 32.8N 47.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 34.2N 48.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 36.7N 48.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 39.3N 46.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 02/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
