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| #109574 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 08.Sep.2006) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 08 2006 THE CLOUD PATTERN BECAME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO BUT IT HAS DETERIORATED A LITTLE BIT SINCE. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND SINCE YESTERDAY HAS BEEN TOWARD BETTER ORGANIZATION. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS THAT HAVE INCREASED AND NOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT FLORENCE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING GRADUALLY UNDER LOW SHEAR...WARM SSTS AND THE POTENTIALLY POSITIVE EFFECTS OF A TROUGH INTERACTION. FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA AS A HURRICANE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS WHICH ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING FLORENCE NEAR BERMUDA AND THEN TURNING IT TO THE NORTHEAST. FLORENCE HAS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THESE WINDS COULD REACH BERMUDA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 23.9N 60.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 24.9N 61.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 26.5N 63.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 10/0600Z 28.5N 65.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 30.5N 65.0W 85 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 35.0N 63.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 12/1800Z 42.0N 57.0W 75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/1800Z 47.1N 48.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
