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| #10968 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 30.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2004 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER TODAY. LISA HAS AN EYE FEATURE AND THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED. HOWEVER...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SURROUNDING THE EYE FEATURE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A HURRICANE AS INDICATED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS AND ALTHOUGH IN THE 12-HR OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS AT 60 KNOTS...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR LISA TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. LISA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS. THERAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 33.6N 47.9W 60 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 35.2N 48.4W 60 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 37.5N 47.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 40.5N 43.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 44.0N 38.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
