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| #109698 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 09.Sep.2006) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/11...BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND 09/1007Z SSMI AND 09/1015Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES. THE BASIC FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH A BREAK OR WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO DEVELOP IN 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 65 KT...77 KT...AND 90 KT FROM SAB...TAFB... AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY...SUGGEST THAT FLORENCE COULD BE A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS TILTED 12-18 NMI NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THAT THERE WAS NO EYE FEATURE PRESENT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ONLY NUDGED UPWARD SLIGHTLY AND AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AROUND 18Z WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT FLORENCE IS A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALSO REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 24.7N 63.7W 60 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 25.9N 64.8W 70 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 27.7N 65.7W 75 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 29.7N 65.9W 85 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 31.9N 65.3W 90 KT...NEAR BERMUDA 72HR VT 12/1200Z 37.6N 61.6W 85 KT 96HR VT 13/1200Z 44.0N 54.0W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 14/1200Z 49.0N 44.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
