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| #1097135 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 AM 28.Jun.2022) TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 500 AM AST Tue Jun 28 2022 Overnight satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance continues to struggle. While there is a ball of convection near the best surface center, GOES 1-min data shows no signs of a well-defined center, and the mid-level circulation seems displaced a degree or more west of the low-level wave axis. Maximum winds are held at 35 kt for this advisory, pending Air Force Hurricane Hunter data later this morning. The system appears to have sped up, with a rough motion estimate of 280/20 kt. A strong ridge to the north should keep the disturbance moving generally westward or west-northwestward at a quick pace through the forecast period. It is a close call on whether or not the system can stay far enough offshore of South America to become a tropical cyclone and potentially strengthen, or if it moves inland over South America and eventually forms later in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. The new NHC forecast brushes most of the coast of Venezuela, and consequently shows little change in strength for a couple of days as a low-end tropical storm. After that time, low shear and warm waters could support the system becoming a hurricane over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, but that will largely depend on what`s left of the system after interacting with land. No changes were made to the end of the forecast with such high uncertainty. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Windward Islands and northeastern Venezuela tonight through Wednesday. Localized flash flooding will be possible. 2. Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the southern Windward Islands tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight and Wednesday, and on Bonaire by Wednesday evening. 3. There is higher-than-normal uncertainty on the system`s forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts with land from tonight through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 9.3N 55.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 28/1800Z 9.9N 58.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 29/0600Z 10.7N 62.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 29/1800Z 11.3N 66.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 11.7N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 12.0N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 11.9N 77.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 11.8N 82.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 12.0N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake |
