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| #1097169 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 28.Jun.2022) TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 28 2022 The system continues to produce vigorous deep convection and also exhibits some banding features. However, reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that there is no well-defined center of circulation at this time. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system again this afternoon. The system is expected to remain in a low-shear and moderately moist atmospheric environment for the next couple of days. However, interaction with land and fast forward motion will likely limit intensification until the system reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea later this week. More significant strengthening, possibly into a hurricane, could occur over the latter area. Although the center position is not precise, the initial motion estimate is kept the same, or 280/20 kt. A strong mid-tropospheric ridge is likely to remain anchored to the north of the system this week. Therefore a continued westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through the forecast period. The official forecast track is mostly unchanged and remains close to the corrected dynamical model consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Windward Islands and northeastern Venezuela tonight through Wednesday. Localized flash flooding will be possible. 2. Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the southern Windward Islands tonight, over Islas Margarita Wednesday morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight and Wednesday evening. 3. There is higher-than-normal uncertainty in the system`s forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts with land from tonight through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 9.8N 57.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0000Z 10.5N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 29/1200Z 11.3N 64.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 30/0000Z 11.7N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 12.1N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 12.2N 75.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 12.1N 78.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 12.0N 84.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/1200Z 12.5N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch |
