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| #1097254 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 28.Jun.2022) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.9N 62.8W ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM WNW OF TRINIDAD ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF CURACAO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Venezuela has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of Venezuela. The meteorological Service of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to Santa Marta.Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches. St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches. Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches. Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to Northwest Venezuela: 3 to 5 inches. The Meteorological Service of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Trinidad and Tobago. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grenada and its dependencies * Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua * Bonaire * Curacao * Aruba * Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of Venezuela. * Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to Santa Marta A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of Venezuela, and the northern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this system. Interests in the southwestern Caribbean Sea and along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica should also monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 62.8 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 26 mph (43 km/h). A westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over the northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela and the northeast coast of Colombia on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days if the disturbance remains over water. Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce heavy rain across the Windward Islands and northeast Venezuela tonight and Wednesday and from the ABC Islands to portions of northwest Venezuela Wednesday through Wednesday night. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected: Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches. St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches. Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches. Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to Northwest Venezuela: 3 to 5 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the southern Windward Islands for a few more hours, over Islas Margarita and the adjacent islands Wednesday morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight, and in the watch area along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and the northeastern coast of Venezuela by Wednesday night and early Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven |
