|
Show Selection: |
| #1097255 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 28.Jun.2022) TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022 Satellite imagery suggests that the disturbance is slowly getting better organized, with gradually increasing convective banding in the northern semicircle. However, surface observations from Trinidad, Tobago, and Grenada indicate that the system has not yet developed a closed circulation. Therefore, it still has the status of a potential tropical cyclone. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the various surface observations. The disturbance is forecast to be in an environment of low shear and warm sea surface temperatures if it remains offshore, and this should lead the system to become a tropical cyclone in 12-24 hr. Strengthening is likely to be slow until the system moves away from the coast of South America after 36 h, at which time a faster development appears likely. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and calls for the system to reach hurricane strength over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the 72 h point. Later in the forecast period, the global models still suggest that the cyclone`s low-level circulation will remain intact after crossing Central America and this is also shown by the NHC forecast. The system is moving a little faster with the initial motion now a somewhat uncertain 285/23 kt. A general westward motion near or just north of the coast of South America with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or two due to the presence of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. A south of west motion may occur for a time while the system is over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track is lies close to the various consensus models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the Windward Islands and parts of northern Venezuela tonight through late Wednesday night. Localized flash flooding will be possible. 2. Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the southern Windward Islands for a few more hours, over Islas Margarita Wednesday morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight and early Wednesday. 3. There is a greater-than-normal uncertainty in the system`s forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts with land from tonight through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 10.9N 62.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/1200Z 11.3N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 30/0000Z 11.8N 69.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 30/1200Z 12.3N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 12.3N 76.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 12.2N 80.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 12.0N 82.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 12.0N 87.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN 120H 04/0000Z 13.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
