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| #1097328 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 29.Jun.2022) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 200 PM AST Wed Jun 29 2022 ...DISTURBANCE NEARING THE ABC ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 68.0W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF CURACAO ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bonaire * Curacao * Aruba * Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of Venezuela. * Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to Santa Marta A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Venezuela and the northern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this system. Interests in the southwestern Caribbean Sea and along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica should also monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 68.0 West. The system is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h), and a fast westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday. On the forecast track, the system will pass near the southern Caribbean Sea and the northern coast of Venezuela today, near the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia early Thursday and over the southwestern Caribbean Sea later on Thursday and on Friday. The system is expected to be near or over Nicaragua by Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while the disturbance remains over water. Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce heavy rain across the Windward Islands and northeast Venezuela today, and from the ABC Islands to portions of northern Venezuela and northeast Colombia today through Thursday morning. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected: Windward Islands from St. Lucia to Trinidad and Tobago: 1 to 3 inches. North-Central Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches. Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to northwestern Venezuela and northern Colombia: 3 to 5 inches. Localized flash flooding will be possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over the ABC Islands later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and along the coast of northeastern Colombia tonight and early Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
