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| #1097402 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 30.Jun.2022) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 200 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 ...DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 71.6W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSW OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA ABOUT 825 MI...1325 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of Venezuela * Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to Santa Marta A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Limon Costa Rica northward to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border * North of Laguna de Perlas to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this system. Watches or warnings may be required for the Colombian Islands of San Andres and Providencia later today. Interests elsewhere along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica should also monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 71.6 West. The system is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a fast westward motion is expected through Friday. On the forecast track, the system will emerge over the southwestern Caribbean Sea this morning, move westward over the southwestern Caribbean Sea today through Friday, and then be over southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica by late Friday. The system is then expected to move over the waters of the eastern North Pacific Ocean on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while the disturbance remains over water. Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while moving westward across the southwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce heavy rain across the ABC Islands to portions of northern Venezuela and northeast Colombia through this morning, then across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected: North-Central Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches. Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to northwestern Venezuela and northern Colombia: 3 to 5 inches. Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals around 10 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely ending within the warning area along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and will likely continue along the coast of northeastern Colombia through sunrise. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in Nicaragua late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are also possible on the Colombian islands of San Andres and Providencia on Friday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
