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| #1097451 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 AM 30.Jun.2022) TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 The disturbance has not become significantly better organized since yesterday with a large curved convective band over the northern portion of the system. Some limited deep convection is forming near the location of the low-level vorticity maximum, which is where a center is expected to form. However, visible satellite images and surface observations along the coast of Colombia indicate that the system still has not developed a well-defined center of circulation, so the disturbance will be kept as a potential tropical cyclone for now. The advisory intensity remains at 35 kt, just above the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to be in the area this afternoon to determine whether a closed circulation has formed and to better assess the intensity of the system. The initial motion estimate remains rapidly westward, 270/17 kt. A strong mid-level ridge extending southwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea should force the disturbance/tropical cyclone on a slightly south-of-due-west heading as it moves toward Central America. A more zonal orientation of the ridge after after 36 hours will likely result in a more westward motion across Central America and into the eastern North Pacific. In 3-5 days, the system should move west-northwestward, south of the coast of Mexico, on the southwest side of the ridge. The official track forecast is quite close to the previous one and also in close agreement with the latest multi-model consensus, TVCN. The expected slowing of forward speed makes it more likely that the disturbance will acquire a closed circulation soon. A very low-shear environment with SSTs near 28 deg C and fairly moist low- to mid-tropospheric air favors intensification of the system until it reaches Central America. The official forecast is close to the simple and corrected intensity model consensus. The NHC forecast does not explicitly show the system reaching hurricane strength over the southwestern Caribbean. However since there is a possibility it could strengthen into a hurricane, the Hurricane Watch is maintained for a portion of the coast of Nicaragua. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is possible across portions of northern Colombia through this morning, and then across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. 2. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua late Friday. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres on Friday, along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning areas late Friday, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 12.0N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 01/0000Z 11.7N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 01/1200Z 11.2N 80.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 11.1N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 11.0N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 03/0000Z 11.2N 87.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN 72H 03/1200Z 11.8N 90.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 13.2N 96.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 14.5N 102.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
