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| #1097659 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 01.Jul.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and satellite imagery indicate that the center of Bonnie has just made landfall near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border. The aircraft reported that prior to landfall, Bonnie was forming an inner wind core with a radius of maximum winds of 5-10 n mi, and on the last fix a 10 n mi wide eye was present. The maximum flight-level winds were 61 kt at 850 mb, and the maximum reliable surface wind estimates from the SFMR were in the 40-45 kt range. Based on these data, the landfall intensity is set to a possibly conservative 45 kt. The initial motion is now 270/14. A mid- to upper-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it generally westward for the next 24 h or so, with the center crossing southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica before reaching the eastern Pacific Saturday morning. After that, the cyclone should turn west-northwestward parallel to the southern coasts of Central America and Mexico, with this general motion persisting through the remainder of the forecast period. The track forecast guidance is tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is little changed from the previous track. Given the expected proximity to land, interests in coastal El Salvador, Guatemala and southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor Bonnie`s progress during the next several days. Bonnie`s small inner core will probably not survive the passage over land during the next 12 h, but the cyclone is still expected to be a tropical storm when it reaches the eastern Pacific. Once there, warm sea surface temperatures and a light shear environment should allow re-intensification, and Bonnie is now forecast to reach hurricane status about two days after it moves into the Pacific. The new intensity forecast has some minor adjustments from the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning areas for the next several hours, and along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua overnight and early Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 10.9N 83.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 02/1200Z 10.9N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/0000Z 11.0N 88.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN 36H 03/1200Z 11.6N 90.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 12.4N 93.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 13.3N 96.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 14.2N 99.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 15.5N 104.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 16.0N 109.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
