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| #1097698 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:08 AM 02.Jul.2022) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 A small area of low pressure formed along a surface trough just offshore of Savannah, Georgia, yesterday morning and moved inland across the Lowcountry of South Carolina by the evening. Deep convection formed near the low center as it was moving inland and has persisted and become better organized over the past 6 to 12 hours. In addition, surface observations and ASCAT data from 02-03 UTC indicated that an area of sustained 35-kt winds had developed offshore and near the coast of South Carolina. As a result, and rather unexpectedly, Tropical Storm Colin has formed near the South Carolina coast, centered just inland a bit to the northeast of Charleston. Colin is moving northeastward just inland of the coast with a motion of 045/7 kt. A low- to mid-level area of high pressure is located over the western Atlantic, and Colin is expected to move northeastward and then east-northeastward around that high during the next 48 hours. The bulk of the available track guidance suggests that Colin`s center will move along or just inland of the coasts of South and North Carolina during the next 36 hours, and the NHC track forecast is generally a blend of the GFEX and HCCA consensus aids. Northwesterly shear of roughly 15-20 kt is expected to continue affecting Colin during the next 36 hours or so, with that shear increasing to 30 kt or more by 48 hours. As a result, strengthening is not anticipated, and Colin is expected to remain a sheared tropical storm while it moves across coastal areas of the Carolinas, with tropical-storm-force winds primarily limited to the southeast of the center. Colin is likely to dissipate over the western Atlantic soon after 48 hours. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the northeastern coast of South Carolina this morning and will spread northeastward within the warning area along the North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday. 2. Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 33.2N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 02/1800Z 33.9N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/0600Z 34.8N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 03/1800Z 35.7N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND 48H 04/0600Z 36.8N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN 60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
