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| #1097779 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 02.Jul.2022) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 Colin has lost organization this afternoon. Visible satellite and Doppler radar images along with surface observations indicate that the circulation has become elongated from north-northeast to south-southwest, and it is starting to resemble a trough. In addition, the convective pattern remains ragged with deep convection confined to the east and southeast of the center. The highest wind reports are in the Wilmington, North Carolina area, where sustained winds have been in the 20-25 kt range. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, but this could be generous. Hopefully ASCAT data will provide more information on Colin`s intensity tonight. The ongoing northwesterly shear of about 20 kt is expected to continue and an approaching cold front is likely to cause the system to become even more elongated. Based on these factors, Colin is expected to dissipate in a day or two, if not sooner. The strongest winds will likely occur along and off the North Carolina coast through Sunday. The storm is moving northeastward at 6 kt. A slightly faster northeast to east-northeast motion is expected, which should take the center of Colin along or just offshore of the North Carolina coast during the next 24 hours, followed by a track over the western Atlantic. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected within the warning area along the North Carolina coast through Sunday. 2. Rough surf and rip currents are likely to continue along the North Carolina coast through Sunday. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding across portions of coastal North Carolina through Sunday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 34.0N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 12H 03/0600Z 34.5N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 03/1800Z 35.7N 75.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 04/0600Z 37.1N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
